Just received from two sources here in Oz, Karina Veal points to http://www.stthomas.edu and from Larry Nordell in Montana, a New York Times report into secret funding of so-called think tanks. And just in case you thought this was just an American disease have a look at the Conversation piece undressing the IPA. There is no question that there is money to be made from telling lies. And pretensions to power. Ask the mad monk.
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Chris Mardon has been a scientist with the CSIRO, an author and an informed commentator on Environmental matters. He is a scientific advisor to the Greens.
It has been revealed in the journal Nature that oil's tipping point has definitely been passed. I don't have a subscription with that journal, but I have found some information about the article from the University of Washington, where one of the authors (Professor James Murray) works: Attached is an enlarged version of the graphs in that article so that you can see what they are talking about. The Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO) has been saying for years that the global production of conventional crude oil peaked in 2005. Now we have the proof. As you can see from the graphs, oil prices have become highly volatile since 2004, reaching a massive peak in mid-2008. This volatility was no doubt enhanced by the hedge funds, but the sudden change in the price elasticity from 2004 is obvious. This reflects the fact that global production had levelled out. Total oil production has increased somewhat as the production of new marginal sources of hydrocarbons has boosted supply somewhat, but the potential for growth in the total supply is limited because all of the new sources are more expensive than conventional crude oil and the oil price feeds back into the cost of new production infrastructure. The attached figure from "The End of Growth" by Richard Heinberg shows three graphs, the first of which is from the IEA. It shows that production from currently producing oil fields is now on the point of permanent decline. New fields yet to be developed or yet to be discovered may allow the continuation of production close to the peak level for some time to come, but there is no scope for growth, and some people consider even these estimates to be very optimistic. There is some scope for temporary growth from natural gas condensate (a light liquid hydrocarbon unsuitable for heavier petroleum products such as diesel fuel, jet fuel, shipping fuels or lubricants) and unconventional oil such as deepwater oil, heavy oil and tar sands), but it is highly capital intensive (which means that it contains substantial embedded energy), and it takes more direct energy to produce. e.g. Venezuelan heavy oil cannot be pumped out of the ground, so steam is blown down the well and an oil/water emulsion is pumped out. This emulsion is quite stable, but it is not suitable as a fuel, so the Chinese are taking tanker loads of this emulsion back to China for further processing. Similarly, the oil from tar sands is not directly suitable for refinery feedstock, so it too needs some further processing first. Even the extraction of the oil from tar sands requires large amounts of natural gas and water, so its production is also energy-intensive and expensive, not to mention very damaging to the environment. As you can see from the lower graphs in the attached figure, world oil discoveries have been in decline since the 1960s, and the marginal cost of oil from new oil fields is rising. There was a sharp drop in oil prices in 2009 as a result of the GFC, but prices have since risen again. The cost of unconventional oil is particularly expensive because the capital costs and energy used to extract them is much higher. The high oil costs are feeding back into the construction costs of new infrastructure and they are making other sources of energy such as coal and LNG more expensive as well. The upshot of all this is that the Energy Return On Energy Invested (EROEI) for new sources of oil is dropping rapidly and approaching the point of diminishing returns (EROEI = 1 means that no net energy is produced, so energy is just converted from one form to another). Shale oil, oil from coal and tar sands are all close to that figure. That means that in terms of the net benefit to the economy, these marginal sources of energy are not very useful, and the Energy Profit Ratio (EPR) that Brian Fleay likes to use (cf. EROEI) is already worse than some forms of renewable energy. We only use them because our industrial and transport systems are built to take conventional oil. Interested in the so called science debates or the phoney culture wars? Have a look at these two pieces from Deb Hart and Bob Weis.
For a discussion from The Conversation on the way the media is reporting global warming click here. If you feel like many do that the ABC has dropped the ball when covering climate change (or not) check out this excellent Background Briefing program. As the mercury climbs and the citizens slowly drift back to work the political silly season continues unabated. What passes for commentary in our media is slanted to the sensational and has no test of truth or honesty. One opinion is as good as another particularly if it comes with a smartly packaged quotable one liner. The endless chatter on the so-called climate change debate has everything apart from facts, scientific heft and a realism about the urgency.
This is not my opinion. I am not a scientist. It is what the scientists are telling us. Not all scientists for sure but 99% of them. Australia has two prominent exceptions neither of whom have expertise in the field. Ian Plymer is a geologist and a mining company board member who has made obfuscation and misinformation his business, and a healthy business it turns out to be. There is a lovely youtube of him "debating" George Monbiot - I say debating in inverted commas because ... well look it up. The Jewish community decided unilaterally not to debate David Irving. The Holocaust was real, did happen and many of us have to deal with issues from it daily. Why pretend it is a legitimate subject for debate with two sides to the argument? Ask the President of Iran but who really wants to talk to him. Our new national identity, do we dig it?The other evening I was at a meeting organized by the Quit Coal Collective. (ad break: these people are second to none direct action activists). Naturally, exchanging information about mining projects popping up left, right and centre, in our precious places and our critical food bowels, overwhelming our land, threatening our water supplies and so on was exhausting and deeply depressing.
There was a reflective moment when we questioned our country’s national identity. For more than a century Australians lived off the sheep’s back but we’ve largely replaced that with transnational corporations (read: most shareholders are not Australian) digging up and taking away swaths of our country. How do we really feel about being a quarry, and leading exporter of climate change? We think of ourselves as people of the land, as down to earth and resilient. Given that our iconic Great Barrier Reef is hanging on by just the skin of its teeth, experts say that it could be lost any year now, perhaps our new national identity will be forced on us sooner than we think. Well, we have solutions that could be adopted immediately. Right now our new Clean Energy Finance Corporation (CEFC) is accepting submissions and the 100% Renewable Energy campaign has a quick, simple and creative solution to make a submission (see my submission below). The only catch is that you also have to be quick about it because submissions close on 8 December. Tell the CEFC that we want Australia to be a hub for renewable energy in the southern hemisphere. Tell them that we are tired of witnessing the fruits of our cutting edge renewable energy R&D leave our shores to be commercialised overseas. Tell them to use their new powers to protect our climate, create clean local jobs, ensure a safe and secure energy future and embrace a new national identity that we can be proud of. With thanks and best wishes, Deborah on behalf of LIVE PS Our legal challenge to the EPA’s approval of a new coal fired power station has been adjourned until 6 Feb, stay tuned. See http://www.live.org.au/component/content/article/59-events/399-brown-coal-in-court PPS please let others know about this important submission opportunity. While many of the countries who signed on to the Paris Accord on limiting global warming have already ratified the Agreement which is the first step to actually reducing their own emissions our Lucky Country has not. It will be interesting to see what if anything is done.
Direct Action, as we know from the utterances of Malcolm, "is a fig leaf" behind which Australia emerges as the worst polluter, per capita, of all countries while continuing in the pretence that action is urgently being implemented. The per capita figures assumes that we have to account for the coal we dig up, transport and send overseas to be burnt in electricity production in China and India both of whom have signalled a slowing down of demand as they move to renewables. I have noted most of this before and apologise for restating what to many will be obvious. Increasingly action is happening at the household level People are growing their own food in communal gardens, verandas and yards as well as common land such as schools, parks and city squares. It may not make much of a dent in the massive problem that we are facing but it does make for a more committed citizenry. The film Demain shows much of the citizen actions throughout the EU, India, China, the US and Africa. Highly recommended. What is to come is the breaking down of industrial farming and mono-cultivation that is adding to our loss of top soil at an alarming rate. Organic farming that is done in combination with companion planting and crop rotation will begin to revive the land that we have been taking for granted as if it was a limitless resource. Looking further ahead if we are competing with farm animals for our very lives we may have to consider modifying or changing our diets. Vegetarian and vegan diets are not only planet friendly they are so because of the massive carbon foot print in the business as usual food chain. So eat food locally grown, in season and organic. I listened to a BBC podcast today about coffee. Very good but, toward the end of the program they pointed out that with climate change new pests and diseases are beginning to infect coffee plantations around the world. Most of the best coffee beans derive from two single seed exports from Ethiopia. The first was to Yemen and beyond there to Western Europe. What has appeared in the last two or three years are diseases such as leaf rust which attacks the coffee trees and destroys their leaves which in turn destroys their nutrition uptake ability, Enjoy that coffee while you can. Of course there is always the choice to drink Robusta beans which as the name implies is a hardier plant that doesn't require the sort of environments that Arabica does, is bitter and forms the basis for Starbucks product which no self respecting coffee drinker would touch. It is very clear that our political classes are not listening or are constrained from taking meaningful action by vested interests. What to do if you have Barnaby Joyce as the Deputy PM, leader of your Coalition (or Coal-ition) partner or the hugely gross (in all senses of the word) figure of George Christiansen on your flank? Malcolm came to be PM by ousting the awful Tony Abbott on a promise to be more collegiate within his party and to take the time to explain to the Australian people in an intelligent dialogue what needs to be done. He was talking about the economy then but has since done about face on so many things that were important to him in the past – we can only hope and trust and work for him being sent back to the opposition benches as soon as possible. What could be more important to the economy and indeed to life itself than seriously tackling climate change. To start with crippling the CSIRO does not send the right signal. In the rush to a globalised economy the thought of tariffs and trade barriers doesn't seem feasible but in an ever changing world the very same global bodies who seek to break down barriers may in an environment where the very real threats to our lives caused by a changing climate will sanction the big national polluters with trade barriers that will further isolate the country that has seen itself as the food bowl for a hungry world. Apart from the citizen proactive things we can and increasingly are doing we need to organise so that our MPs realise that we are not just there for a few months before an election and then apathetic until the next one but that we are also very much involved and have too much at stake to risk that our Parliaments will do the right thing without being pushed very hard by we, the people. One action that should be considered is a High Court challenge to the government for failing the nation on this vital question as well as looking at the possibility of criminal charges against the blockers who maintain that the opinion that global warming is not man made or worse that it is a socialist plot. Well might we scoff at them but scoffing will not save our planet our our futures. In the past week we have seen tornadoes rip through South Australia which turned their electric supply towers into bits of broken Lego and disrupting a great deal of the state's electricity. Our Prime Miniature was quick to blame renewables which he must have known were not the cause. If the power was coming from sun, wind or indeed brown coal it made no difference if the towers and lines used to deliver it were strewn across the State. As one pundit pointed out when the tornado Yasi hit Queensland not one tower came down in stronger winds. They went on to wonder that perhaps the now visible concrete supports were too flimsy and if they had been built since the power business was privatised. I heard class dunce Barnaby ranting today about the South Australian disaster. “OK,” he said “the problem was caused by bad weather but why did it take so long to get the current flowing again?” the old technique of if you are caught out lying once then move the lie upstream. Barnaby might be an obvious figure of fun but look at the damage he can do and does. The tornadoes blow themselves out as they move on but BJ goes on and on. I am pleased to say that Victoria's premier, Daniel Andrews, was quick to describe Malcolm's utterances as “arrant nonsense”. It will be of great interest if there are economic reprisals from Canberra as there was with the Abbott government over roads and infrastructure funding. Sadly the effects are being felt in the investment community where investors are starting to get nervous about the lack of government commitment to renewables. Turnbull's comments were a discussion warmer for the upcoming fed-states pow wow on energy. Love your work Malcolm. All this begs the question what is the role of government? To me there are natural monopolies that benefit from government ownership and oversight. Telephony is one of these. If the Government hadn't privatised Telstra the NBN rollout would be finished long ago. If the power companies hadn't been sold off we would have 100% renewables as well as a smart grid and jobs for the retrained coal mining workforce. Water, roads, airports and harbours all have the need of strong oversight even if the operations are leased to private corporations. I listen to Parliament for information, debate humour and irritation. It is mainly irritation now having been through rage, disbelief, sadness and back to irritation. We now have the Howard tried and tested wrapping the flag around our fears and pretending to protect us from all the nasty Muslims who would do us harm at the same time as pretending to take climate change/global warming seriously while snubbing the rest of the world.
Imagine the following scenario much of which is already happening. Coal prices bottom out as more counties move to renewables. Our vast coal reserves become too expensive to dig up. We get left behind in the new clean global energy economy. If the Rockefeller family, the founders of Standard oil, feel that now is the time to divest in favour of investment in green energy do you take the sovereign risk of saying "they don't know" and disagree with thousands of climate scientists worldwide (including your own) and keep spruiking cheap coal? The price per watt of coal generated power is now more expensive than solar or/and wind. So it is not science or economics unless it is the economics of favouring your paymaster - but that would be too cynical to do or to surmise. It beggars belief really unless the all too human trait of hope and belief in a future that can be better still informs your views. A couple of nights ago three of us went to the Trades Hall in Victoria St and in a very small room behind the bookshop saw Naomi Klein's film "Everything Must Change" based on her book with the same title. Roaming the globe she showed us just how bad things have become and how the policy makers are failing to do what is necessary to fix the immense problems facing planet earth. Her call is for people power to address the real issues and to bypass governments and corporations who will eventually follow.
The strange thing that I can't fathom is that most of the people who are in power have families who will not be any better off when the waters rise and the tornadoes and cyclones hit. They may be slightly better off when the food and water wars start for a little while but there is no guarantee of that either. Having access to survival supplies must make you a target in a time of extreme need. Klein remains optimistic as does another commentator and writer, Mark Shapiro. I hope they are right. I am basically optimistic in general but having tracked this for the last twenty years and seen the massive effort and money going into denial leaves me open mouthed and panting. After Paris one could have been optimistic but then seeing the buffoon Hunt getting an award from a nation of fossil fuel pushers as the Best Environment Minister in the world it seems like business as usual Down Under. Turnbull (or Turncoat) has disavowed none of the Abbott era policies and it is widely said that he is held hostage by a significant right wing flank in the parliamentary party who believe that climate change is a left wing hoax. Presumably these people have families too. Is there enough money, power and or prestige for now to throw it all away when the inevitable happens? Democracy allow for different views but survival depends on seeing the train before you step into its path. Kevin Rudd called it the biggest moral issue of our time and when faced with the problem of not getting it through the Senate, with the Greens voting against it, jettisoned the action he had planned as if it didn't matter anymore. Which leads us to Ms Klein's point. The people have to take this on. Make the changes in your own lives. Consume less. Recycle more. Buy green power or generate it yourself. Question your utility suppliers, ask AGL why when they are trumpeting their green credentials they doubled their emissions in one year last year. Shop organic and local. Don't buy imported food or drink. Yes tap water is fine. Have a good look at your wardrobe and swap or donate those things you don't wear any more but are still hanging on to. This one is not for everyone but if you can do it become a vegan or at least don't eat processed meat. Ask where your fish comes from and buy organic. Eat meat twice a week. Grow what you can. For a very long time we behaved like we had limitless resources and all we had to do was kill, pick, dig and burn to keep our lives improving. We don't, we never did. Nothing is infinite or without end. We are at the pointy end now and need to take responsibility for where we are now and for where we are going. It is easy pickings to see that North Korea is a threat to world peace. It is equally blindingly obvious that we are in for a very rough ride if we constantly deny reality or partition it in our minds as a problem for other peoples in other places. Right now in Miami and down the east coast of the USA people are being flooded in their homes and highways. Their pollies are in denial like ours (except Obama) and nothing is being done. Climate change is not a political problem - it is a problem of survival. We all need to act, not tomorrow but now. We need to network with our communities and take on this immense problem because if we don't it will take us. There must be a limit to how bad this mob can get but no each day plumbs new depths. We became the first country in the world to get rid of measures to abate our carbon footprint while bragging about bringing massive new coal mines on line.
Then there was the budget that ripped a huge amount from the 99% to reward the 1% for their contribution in global warming. If ever there as a visual cue for that it has go to be Clive Palmer the obese and charmless fool who says one thing to do the opposite and is using his numbers in parliament to enrich himself. Then there is the first rate hypocrite Smoking Joe the excuse for a Treasurer snarling at anyone who might question his actions and a bevy of members and ministers who by the very sound of their voice will make me reach for the off button. I could list them but what's the point? I think I'll have to choose another activity for daily irritation, listening to Parliament is becoming a health hazard. While I have been writing about the issue of global warming and its effects I haven't written about something we can all do that will have an enormous effect on our own carbon footprint. Try having meatless or animal product free meals a couple of days a wee. I have been a vegan fort about two years and the benefited to me personally include; health, no cruelty to animals and a decrease in my own carbon footprint.
If the reasons above are not enough to give up consuming animals or animal products there is also the economy of being a vegan. It may cost more to be an organic vegan and take more diligence to not eat food that has transport milked embedded in it but once you make the change you will feel better in yourself and you will stop contributing to the carbon pollution of this planet. In intensive farming that is the Western model, the massive use of chemicals employed deplete the soil of nutrients and decrease the nutrition available to the end user as well as introducing toxins into the food chain. Much of this is in "The China Study" and the film, "Forks Over Knives", both mentioned below. So whatever your motivational starting point is it is a win win to become and remain a vegan. |